Baseline Behaviour and Changes

When we are trying to understand what is happening around us, one of the most useful things we can notice is change.

To notice a change, we first need some idea of what is normal for that particular situation.

This is sometimes called the baseline.

What is a baseline?

A baseline is simply what you would normally expect to see in a particular environment or situation.

For example, at a busy railway station you might expect to see:

• people checking departure boards

• passengers carrying bags

• people using their phones

• groups talking

• people moving quickly towards platforms

• people waiting around

None of these behaviours would usually seem unusual because they fit the environment.

The baseline will be different somewhere else.

Someone standing still for ten minutes might be perfectly normal at a railway station but more noticeable in a quiet residential street late at night.

This is why context matters.

Look for changes

Rather than trying to decide whether somebody “looks suspicious”, pay attention to behaviour and changes.

Imagine you are sitting in a cafe.

Someone nearby is using their phone. There is nothing unusual about that.

A few minutes later, you notice that each time you move to another part of the café, they also move. When you prepare to leave, they immediately get up.

One action on its own may mean nothing.

It is the developing pattern that deserves your attention.

You have noticed a change.

Now you can think about what it might mean and what options you have.

One behaviour rarely tells you everything

People behave differently for many reasons.

Someone may appear nervous because they are anxious.

Someone may repeatedly look around because they are waiting for a friend.

Someone may be walking behind you simply because they are going in the same direction.

Someone avoiding eye contact may be uncomfortable, distracted or simply behaving normally for them.

None of these behaviours automatically means somebody is dangerous.

Personal safety is not about labelling people.

It is about noticing what is happening.

Context, combinations, persistence and patterns

When something attracts your attention, consider the bigger picture.

Context

Does the behaviour make sense for where you are and what is happening?

Combinations

Are several behaviours happening together?

Persistence

Does the behaviour continue even when the situation changes?

Patterns

Is a pattern beginning to develop?

For example, somebody walking behind you is very common.

But if you cross the road and they cross too, change direction and they follow, then enter a shop and they wait outside, the situation has changed.

You now have more information to consider.

You don’t need to diagnose the situation

Your job is not to work out exactly what another person is thinking.

You may never know.

Instead, ask yourself:

What am I actually noticing?

What has changed?

Does the behaviour fit the situation?

Is there a pattern developing?

Then consider whether there is anything sensible you could do.

You might change position, create more distance, move towards other people or simply continue paying attention.

NOTICE → THINK → ACT

Recognising a change does not mean you need to panic or confront somebody.

It gives you information.

NOTICE

What is happening?

What has changed?

THINK

Does it make sense in this situation?

Is there a pattern?

What options do I have?

ACT

Take a reasonable action if you need to.

Sometimes the appropriate action will simply be to remain aware.

At other times, acting early might give you the opportunity to move, leave or get help.

The earlier you notice something, the more options you have.