The Gambler

Two friends, Michael and Shaun, meet up every Saturday to bet on a horse race.

Without fail, Michael always puts his money on the horse with the funniest name. Some of the horses he’s bet on in the past include: Britney Spurs, Hoof Hearted, and Arnold Schwarzeneighger.

Shaun, on the other hand, prefers to study the form of each horse in the race, and always bets on the one which has the best results on average over its past five races.

Which one would you prefer to put a bet on for you?

Personally, I would trust Shaun with my money over Michael every time!

Obviously, there is no guarantee that Shaun’s horse will do better than Michael’s in a given race; Shaun’s horse may fall, or it may just so happen that the horse with the funniest name is coincidentally also the fastest. But, over time, it is highly likely Shaun will pick many more winners than Michael.

This is because Shaun is relying on information relevant to his decision when choosing which horse to back, whereas Michael is not; how well a horse has done in its previous five races is a pretty good indicator of how well it is likely to run in its next one, whereas the comedic value of a horse’s name has no bearing on its racing ability whatsoever.

He may not know it, but Shaun is actually employing intelligence techniques to give himself an advantage in this scenario.

This is a basic example that demonstrates how intelligence can be employed to reduce a decision-maker’s uncertainty (about which horse will win the race in this instance) and inform their decision (about which horse to bet on) so that decision is more likely to result in the outcome the decision-maker intends (winning money!)

While the outcome in this story was relatively insignificant, intelligence has the power to provide an advantage in some incredibly high-stakes decisions: ones that can cost or earn millions of dollars, ones that can win or lose major sporting events, and even ones that can be the difference between life and death.

Being able to offer this advantage is just one reason (along with improving universally-applicable skills such as critical thinking, research, presenting, writing, and design) why attaining a solid grasp of intelligence concepts and techniques can prove so useful in your career (whether or not that is in a specific intelligence role) and life in general.

The Intelligence Bible is designed to help you do this whether you are a complete beginner with no intelligence experience whatsoever or a seasoned analyst looking to enhance your skillset and plug a few knowledge gaps.